Kursk.
It was one of my very first words as a BBC correspondent.
I wrote a report in 2000 about the Kursk submarine’s sinking in the Barents Sea’s icy waters. There were the deaths of 178 submariners.
It had been less than half a year since Vladimir Putin had assumed office. I can in any case recall Russian Stations pummeling him over his treatment of the debacle.
The K-141 Kursk sank 24 years ago this week. Additionally, the subject of Kursk appears once more in my Russian correspondence. This time, Ukrainian troops made an unexpected incursion into the Kursk Region, seizing territory for the past nine days.
the same word
However, Russia in 2024 is quite distinct from Russia in 2000.
This time, President Putin has not been criticized in any way on Russian television; not putting his decisions into question; no idea that his intrusion of Ukraine has prompted this emotional second. On the other hand, the Kremlin has had a quarter of a century to tighten its grip on the Russian media and messaging.
Nevertheless, will these occurrences harm Vladimir Putin?
Over the past two and a half years, I have been asked this question numerous times:
When Ukraine sank the warship Moskva in 2022, it was the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. It happened again in 2023 during the Wagner mutiny, when armed mercenaries were marching on Moscow in a direct challenge to Vladimir Putin’s authority, and again a few months later after Russian troops bolted from north-eastern Ukraine.
It appears that President Putin escaped all of that unscathed. He will have faith that he can overcome this most recent obstacle.
Be that as it may, listen to this. The Wagner revolt was over in a day.
For more than a week, Ukraine has been on the offensive inside Russia. The more it proceeds, the more prominent the strain will be on the Russian initiative and, possibly, the more prominent the harm to President Putin’s position.
Through his over twenty years in power, Mr Putin has developed the picture of “Mr Security”, the main man in this immense country fit for keeping Russians free from any potential harm.
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine, his so-called “special military operation,” was presented to the Russian people as a means of improving Russia’s national security.
After two and a half years of war, there is little evidence of “safe and secure” in this area.
With the addition of Sweden and Finland to the Nato Alliance, there is now even more Nato along Russia’s borders; Ukrainian drones frequently strike Russian cities; Russian territory is now being taken over by Ukrainian troops.
Vladimir Putin is attempting to reassure the Russian public that they should not be alarmed by his choice of language.
While alluding to the Ukrainian attack he has tried not to utilize “intrusion”. He has instead referred to “the events that are taking place” or “the situation in the border area.” The Kremlin chief has likewise referred to the Ukrainian hostile as “an incitement”.
What will the president of Russia do next?
Try not to anticipate that he should get the telephone and call Kyiv. After the Ukrainian attack, Russian officials have made it clear that they won’t be starting peace talks at all.
Not that there had been any scheduled large-scale negotiations.
In point of fact, Vladimir Putin made clear his intention this week: to drive the foe from Russian region.”
Saying something is one thing. It’s a different thing to do it. The Russian military has sent reinforcements to the Kursk region, but they have not yet regained control of this region of Russia.
I stopped dead in my tracks as I passed the Kremlin on Thursday morning.
Edith Piaf’s classic Non, je ne regrette rien (No, I regret nothing) was playing on a large video screen and echoing throughout Red Square as workers were putting together seating and screens for an event.
It was an extremely dreamlike second.
Vladimir Putin has given no indication of disappointment for having sent off a full-scale intrusion of Ukraine.
He has made no mistakes since then that he regrets.
He still believes there is only one possible outcome to this war, based on his recent public statements. Russia’s triumph.
